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Abstract

We develop an intuitive model to predict the commission of a crime by juveniles in the US using an extensive set of information on the individuals. We have background data on demographics, family composition, socioeconomic status, family relationships, and schooling outcomes. These variables are broadly categorized into three groups: Nature (variables such as family and home environment characteristics which do not directly imply the active involvement of the youth), Nurture (variables involving the individuals’ relationship with his family that require his active participation), and Nerd (variables describing schooling and other studying characteristics such as time spent reading for fun or doing homework). The Nerd attributes perform better at predicting crime than Nurture and Nature. Individually, none of these categories perform well in predicting the crime probabilities.

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